To simply regard Donald Trump and Elon Musk mad and irrational, though popular these days, would risk misinterpreting their true nature and strategic intents, therefore misguiding the necessary preparation to deal with the onslaught of a drastically different US Empire in case they succeed, or fail.
The Insane Duo
Insanity is often no more than an insult directed at one’s targeted enemy. As Trump and Musk are vehemently detested by the neoliberals and their ‘free press’ (which has been sneakily shaping many people’s thinking process and opinions for decades), it’s not surprising that many regard Donald and Elon mentally unstable.
However, they do seem unhinged in many ways indeed, though for reasons which are more strategic than psychiatric.
First of all, to accomplish what Trump wishes to accomplish (for whatever motives he harbours in his heart) he’ll have to first get elected. To get elected, he’ll have to communicate with the American masses in a manner which they understand. If he calmly lays out the current state of their thoroughly corrupt union, or coherently explains his strategy to reshape America, he may reach less than 1% of his compatriots. Not enough to get him into the White House, I think. Chanting MAGA brainlessly is an effective way — perhaps the only way — to connect with the majority of Americans who can feel their nation’s mega-problems, but don’t like the boring words which best explain them.
Other circumstantial considerations tell me Trump and Musk cannot be so neatly and simplemindedly nutty. Purebred lunatics can’t achieve what they have achieved to date. Sure, many a useful idiot had become US President through the established ‘democratic’ channel. But someone with Bush II’s cerebral capacity, for example, cannot possibly get into the White House without being a Bush and a dedicated servant of deep state interests. And genuine loggerheads — no matter how lucky, nasty and ruthless — don’t often become one of the richest persons on Earth by doing odd things.
If they’re not truly crazy, what do they want?
What they want is not a secret. Trump has repeated that in different ways. Just that nobody takes the crazy man seriously.
Global retrenchment
Colonial Britain needed a hegemonic and manipulative strategy to gain power way above its weight, in order to maintain disproportionate prosperity and a neurotic sense of security. The US, on the other hand, has nearly all the resources it needs since its genocidal beginning in North America. They don’t need hegemony the way tiny Britain did. China, for example, is a similarly big country (with less natural resources) which understands its geopolitical karma differently, as is reflected in its foreign policy. Since the Second World War, the US has adopted Britain’s historical approach blindly, incongruously, and anachronously, possibly due to DNA kinship and runaway greed. Perhaps Donald understands this glaring American mistake more clearly?
If he does, then dismantling the current global order and alliance network would be acceptable, even necessary. The quickest and most profitable way to achieve that is to suck whatever he can out of the dependent allies, then let them wilt their own ways.
Devalue the USD, tariffs, and re-industrialisation
Devaluating the USD significantly may get the US out of the cosmic debt trap it’s set for itself. Imagine, when I borrowed a hundred dollars from you, I could buy a cow with it. Now I pay you back a hundred bucks, it can only buy a small piece of steak due to devaluation. Can’t say I’ve defaulted though, can you?
Substantial devaluation, however, would mean America — more precisely, Wall Street and the political elites — losing the prerogative to loot the world. Does it make sense to lose such a historic advantage? The answer is yes, from America’s point of view, if it can see beyond the short-term.
Looting the world by churning out a fiat currency unrestrained is cool for a while. But after a couple of generations, the looter would lose spirit, productivity, and eventually power, especially when military supremacy is lost as a result of industrial decline. Dependency on looting is toxic and addictive in the long run, and the long run has arrived for America. That’s why to Trump, and possibly the entire American ruling class, re-industrialisation is critically urgent.
But how? The Democrats want to do that without losing the USD. Well, Biden tried, and made the situation worse.
Trump’s way, given the time frame, is also nearly impossible, but relatively feasible if the Federal Reserve doesn’t get him first. What’s his way? Crazy import duties in addition to a devalued currency.
It takes naivety to believe that seasoned businessmen like Trump and Musk don’t understand the impact of import duties on inflation. Perhaps they actually want inflation in imported goods? When imported products are expensive enough due to tariffs and a weak dollar, things made in America will be competitive again, at least in their domestic market. Someone will start up factories to manufacture micro chips and sweaters and face masks again.
When and if prices have stabilised after the initial tremors (which will be severe and may last more than four years, however), the average American may not be able to afford goodies from China or Europe, but can buy locally made merchandise. Domestic productivity and employment will have gone up accordingly in a perfect world with American bias.
The global supply chain would have been disrupted, reshaped, even destroyed. Capitalism and the free market, concepts which once served imperial interests, will have died without an eulogy. To those who can’t think beyond the status quo, these are unthinkable prospects.
In fact the Democrats also want this end result, though not the process leading to it, hence the seemingly bipartisan efforts to lure, bribe, or coerce industrialists to relocate to America.
All this brings out yet another reason for Trump’s hysteria: time.
If China were to achieve objectives similar to the above, it would plan for it to unfold over ten, maybe twenty or thirty years. The transition would be hardly noticeable. Trump must do it in four. When people have much more ambition than time, they become desperate, and appear deranged. For the rest of the world, it’d be crazy and dangerous to believe they really are.
中文版本：特朗普与马斯克一点也不疯
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